CS2 Case ROIs

By John Stevens 3 min read
cs2 case roi
Case Name Cost of Case Cost of Key Average Special Average Return on Case Return on Investment
CS:GO Weapon Case $100.49 $2.49 $330.20 $0.84 0.82%
eSports 2013 Case $46.89 $2.49 $330.20 $0.84 1.71%
Operation Bravo Case $57.69 $2.49 $330.20 $0.84 1.40%
CS:GO Weapon Case 2 $17.16 $2.49 $330.20 $0.84 4.30%
eSports 2013 Winter Case $12.49 $2.49 $330.20 $0.84 5.64%
Winter Offensive Weapon Case $7.61 $2.49 $330.20 $0.84 8.36%
CS:GO Weapon Case 3 $10.96 $2.49 $330.20 $0.84 6.28%
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case $3.64 $2.49 $330.20 $0.84 13.78%
Huntsman Weapon Case $11.30 $2.49 $216.80 $0.55 4.02%
Operation Breakout Weapon Case $6.92 $2.49 $675.26 $1.73 18.35%
eSports 2014 Summer Case $8.46 $2.49 $330.20 $0.84 7.71%
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case $3.69 $2.49 $330.20 $0.84 13.66%
Chroma Case $3.42 $2.49 $470.02 $1.20 20.34%
Chroma 2 Case $3.08 $2.49 $470.02 $1.20 21.58%
Falchion Case $1.42 $2.49 $182.20 $0.47 11.92%
Shadow Case $1.30 $2.49 $156.27 $0.40 10.55%
Revolver Case $2.28 $2.49 $330.20 $0.84 17.70%
Operation Wildfire Case $2.91 $2.49 $233.82 $0.60 11.07%
Chroma 3 Case $2.57 $2.49 $470.02 $1.20 23.76%
Gamma Case $2.66 $2.49 $391.50 $1.00 19.44%
Gamma 2 Case $2.54 $2.49 $391.50 $1.00 19.91%
Glove Case $4.88 $2.49 $230.88 $0.59 8.01%
Spectrum Case $2.87 $2.49 $359.14 $0.92 17.14%
Operation Hydra Case $24.80 $2.49 $230.88 $0.59 2.16%
Spectrum 2 Case $2.03 $2.49 $359.14 $0.92 20.32%
Clutch Case $0.74 $2.49 $324.91 $0.83 25.73%
Horizon Case $1.21 $2.49 $299.20 $0.77 20.68%
Danger Zone Case $1.07 $2.49 $299.20 $0.77 21.49%
Prisma Case $0.99 $2.49 $397.64 $1.02 29.22%
CS20 Case $1.06 $2.49 $217.93 $0.56 15.70%
Shattered Web Case $5.61 $2.49 $300.25 $0.77 9.48%
Prisma 2 Case $1.07 $2.49 $397.64 $1.02 28.57%
Fracture Case $0.76 $2.49 $299.67 $0.77 23.58%
Operation Broken Fang Case $6.14 $2.49 $293.98 $0.75 8.71%
Snakebite Case $0.37 $2.49 $293.98 $0.75 26.29%
Operation Riptide Case $7.74 $2.49 $314.02 $0.80 7.85%
Dreams & Nightmares Case $1.60 $2.49 $314.02 $0.80 19.64%
Recoil Case $0.54 $2.49 $293.98 $0.75 24.81%
Revolution Case $1.25 $2.49 $324.91 $0.83 22.22%

How We Calculate CS2 Case ROI

For the calculation, we used this GitHub guide. See the calculation guide below.

This guide explains how to calculate the statistics for CS2 case details, similar to those found at cases.jonesy.moe. The data format includes multiple skin marketplaces besides Steam.

1. Understanding the Data Sources

  • Skin Prices: Data is collected from the Steam marketplace
  • Rarity Probability: Valve publicly released the drop rates for skin rarities to cater to the Chinese CS2 market. The results are:
Rarity Standard StatTrak
Special items 0.25575% 0.02558%
Covert 0.63939% 0.06394%
Classified 3.19693% 0.31969%
Restricted 15.98465% 1.59847%
Mil-Spec 79.92327% 7.99233%
  • Wear Probability: The exact probability for skin wear is not public, so it’s calculated using data from the CS2 Float database. Approximate results are:
Wear Range Probability
Factory New (0.00-0.07) ~3%
Minimal Wear (0.07-0.15) ~24%
Field-Tested (0.15-0.38) ~33%
Well-Worn (0.38-0.45) ~24%
Battle-Scarred (0.45-1.00) ~16%

2. Calculating the Average Price for Each Skin

For example, using the CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate from CS:GO Weapon Case 3:
{
"CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate": {
"wears": ["FN", "ST FN", "MW", "ST MW", "FT", "ST FT"],
"prices": {
"FN": 2.93,
"ST FN": 11.94,
"MW": 2.18,
"ST MW": 6.62,
"FT": 2.07,
"ST FT": 4.34
},
"rarity": "Restricted"
}
}

Steps:

  1. Adjust Wear Probabilities: If a skin doesn’t have all wear levels (e.g., no Well-Worn or Battle-Scarred), redistribute their probabilities proportionally to the existing wear levels.
    • Example: Well-Worn + Battle-Scarred = 0.24 + 0.16 = 0.4
    • Divide the missing probability by the number of remaining wear levels: 0.4 / 3 = 0.133333
    • Add this value to the probabilities of the existing wear levels. For example, Factory New now has a probability of 0.03 + 0.13333 = 0.16333333.
  2. Calculate Normal and StatTrak Probabilities: Multiply the adjusted wear probabilities by the chance of getting a normal (90%) or StatTrak (10%) variant.
    • Normal: 0.9 * 0.16333333 = 0.147
    • StatTrak: 0.1 * 0.16333333 = 0.016333333333333335
  3. Calculate Weighted Price for Each Wear: Multiply the price of each wear level by its adjusted probability.
    • Normal FN: 2.93 * 0.147 = 0.42923999999999995
    • StatTrak FN: 11.94 * 0.016333333 = 0.19453000000000004
  4. Repeat for all wear values:
    • FN: 0.42923999999999995
    • FN ST: 0.19453000000000004
    • MW: 0.73248
    • MW ST: 0.24639999999999995
    • FT: 0.8673600000000001
    • FT ST: 0.20201333333333338
  5. Sum the Weighted Prices: Add all the weighted prices together to get the average expected price of the skin.
    • In this example: 0.42923999999999995 + 0.19453000000000004 + 0.73248 + 0.24639999999999995 + 0.8673600000000001 + 0.20201333333333338 = $2.6720233333333336
  6. Repeat for All Skins: Repeat these steps for every skin in the case.

3. Calculate the Average Prices of Each Rarity

  1. Collect Skin Prices by Rarity: Group the average prices calculated in step 2 by their respective rarity.
  2. Calculate Mean Average for Each Rarity: Calculate the mean average price for each rarity type.
    • Example for Mil-Spec:
      • CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web: 1.4048299999999998
      • P2000 | Red FragCam: 0.40520999999999996
      • Dual Berettas | Panther: 0.49759000000000014
      • USP-S | Stainless: 5.282
      • Glock-18 | Blue Fissure: 1.7008500000000002
    • Calculation: (1.4048299999999998 + 0.40520999999999996 + 0.49759000000000014 + 5.282 + 1.7008500000000002) / 5 = 1.858096
    • So, the average Mil-Spec skin price is $1.86.
  3. Repeat for All Rarities: Repeat this process for all rarity types (Restricted, Classified, Covert, Special).

4. Calculate the Average Overall Skin Price

  1. Multiply Rarity Averages by Drop Probabilities: Multiply the average skin price for each rarity by its corresponding drop probability (from the Rarity Probability table in section 1).
    • Example:
      • Mil-Spec: 1.858096 * 0.7992327 = 1.4850510829392
      • Restricted: 2.8584508333333334 * 0.1598465 = 0.4569133611304167
      • Classified: 13.292348333333333 * 0.0319693 = 0.4249470715728333
      • Covert: 9.429039999999999 * 0.0063939 = 0.06028833885599999
      • Special: 200.03564163333334 * 0.0025575 = 0.51159115347725
  2. Sum the Weighted Rarity Prices: Add up all the results from the previous step.
    • Total = 1.4850510829392 + 0.4569133611304167 + 0.4249470715728333 + 0.06028833885599999 + 0.51159115347725 = 2.9387910079757003
  3. Final Result: The average overall skin price for the case is $2.94

5. Calculate Return on Investment (ROI)

  1. Divide Average Skin Price by Case + Key Cost: Divide the average overall skin price (calculated in step 4) by the combined cost of the case and a key.
    • Example: Case Cost = $1.37, Key Cost = $2.49
    • ROI = 2.9387910079757003 / (1.37 + 2.49) = 0.76134
  2. Convert to Percentage: Multiply the result by 100 to express the ROI as a percentage.
    • ROI = 0.76134 * 100 = 76.13%

So, the ROI for the case is 76.13%. Note that this calculation doesn’t account for Steam Market fees.

FAQ

What does CS2 case ROI mean?

It’s a measure of how profitable it is to open CS2 cases in the game.

How is ROI calculated for CS2 cases?

ROI is calculated by dividing the total value of items received from opening cases by the total cost of the keys and cases, then multiplying by 100 to get a percentage. A ROI over 100% means you are, on average, making a profit.

What factors affect the ROI of CS2 cases?

The ROI is affected by the drop rates of different items, the market prices of those items, and the cost of the cases and keys.